Is Apple Gaining?

Some big news came from comScore this week announcing the latest Smartphone marketshare numbers for software platforms – Apple’s iOS now has a larger share than RIM/Blackberry, 26.6% vs 24.7% respectively.

Smartphone marketshare A quarter earlier the numbers were reversed at 25.2% and 28.9%. Click here to see the fill comScore report.

So is this big news for Apple? I don’t think so. If you look at all the numbers reporting on Google, Apple, RIM, Microsoft and Palm, the only two gains were Google (Android) and Apple. But Android gained 5.1% over the same period (now up to 38.1%) while Apple only gained 1.4%. The biggest loser was RIM, losing 4.2%. Microsoft lost 1.9% and Palm lost 0.4% but given Microsoft and Palm only make up 8% of the total market, it’s safe to say only the top three matter for now.

What we see here is the continuing death spiral of RIM. Given the only two real competitors at this point are Google and Apple the war is around who takes the market share RIM is giving up, and in this past quarter the answer was clearly Google.

Is this trend to continue? The big change will be Microsoft. With Windows Phone 7 and the deal with Nokia to replace Symbian as their software platform, Microsoft will be a player. At some point, probably in mid to late 2012 you’ll see Apple start to decline and Microsoft in a major growth cycle. Ultimately Apple will end up with 10% market share or less and the war will rage between Android and Windows Phone x.


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